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Let me get this statement out of the way right at the start: psychologists are pretty bad at predicting the potential for violent behavior.

I must also say this: we are a lot better at it than we used to be.

I am sure that, as research progresses, we will get better and better at assessing an individual's risk and protecting society from the its most dangerous citizens.

You can go ahead and file this one under "random, but potentially useful tip." :) Whenever I find I need new supplies or materials for a project, before I go out and buy them, I try to run through my mental list of stuff I already have that might be just the right thing for this project. These bookmarks are small enough - the paper will fit just fine sandwiched between tape strips. These bookmarks are for a Bible reading plan a few of us started recently (or will be starting).

Psychologists used to be absolutely terrible at predicting future violence. On the flip side, it would be a travesty to take away an innocent person's rights because he may pose a danger at some unknown point in the next decade.

There are also some static factors that deal with current information about the individual, such as age (which changes over time, but fairly slowly), and personality structure.Since that time, there have been huge improvements in the way risk assessments are conducted.Psychologists examine a number of different factors in the individual's life, weigh those factors based on how good (or bad) of a predictor each is on its own, add them all together, and come up with a risk level for the individual. Great, 'cause I wrote up a little tutorial just for you :).Carefully place the bookmark down on one end of the sticky side of the tape.We know from research that there are certain life circumstances that correlate highly with future violent acts.By examining these factors, it gives clinicians a reasonable idea of the potential level of risk a person poses.Now grab the far end of the tape by its edges and bring it towards the end where you placed the bookmark. * Line up the edges, and begin smoothing the tape down on top of the paper.Again, start from one end and gradually use your fingers to push down the tape from one end to the other to avoid bubbles.But, we do know there are a number of dynamic factors that can predict whether a person is going to engage in violence sometime in the next few days (or even the next few weeks, depending on the factors being assessed). We can accurately predict future violence about 65-70% of the time. The methods we currently use are much better than they used to be, but there is still a lot of room for error. So, here is what we know so far about risk assessment: 1. Recent events in Colorado and Wisconsin remind us of the dangers of not catching dangerous individuals before they act.

143 comments

  1. I enjoyed your piece on risk assessment. In probation, we used an instrument which was simple but very effective for years. The only group it didn't work on, were sex.

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